The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released its latest poll today.
While the Malloy political operatives will claim that the poll shows him leading the unknown Republican candidates and is tied with former gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley, the data provides a harsh assessment of Malloy’s standing with the Connecticut electorate.
Despite Governor Malloy’s numerous proposals to “buy-back” support from key voting constituencies, Governor Malloy’s level of support has not improved over the past year and he clearly faces significant barriers should he attempt to run for re-election this year.
According to the new Quinnipiac Polling Institute survey, Malloy does not garner more than 44 percent of the vote against any Republican candidate and his overall favorability rating remains at a dismal level of 46 percent.
An incumbent’s favorability rating is one of the most important indicators of upcoming electoral success.
According to this new Quinnipiac Poll, Malloy’s favorability has not improved at all since the last Q-Poll which was done in June 2013 when his favorability rating was also 46 percent.
What should be of even more concern to Malloy’s political operation is his level of support among key voting groups that Malloy would need to win..
According to the poll,
One in five Democratic voters do not have a favorable opinion of Malloy.
Malloy’s favorability among women doesn’t even reach 50 percent (now at 48%).
Only 41% of unaffiliated voters have a favorable opinion of Malloy.
Another key question that campaign experts study is the one that asks, “Do you feel that Dannel Malloy deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?” According to the Q-poll,
Only 45 percent of Connecticut voters say he should be elected
And only 40 percent of unaffiliated voters believe Malloy deserves re-election.
And to make matters significantly worse for Malloy, six in ten voters are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Connecticut.
As political activists know, polls are only a “snapshot” of voter attitudes at the time the poll is taken. Things can and do change in the course of an election. The Malloy operation will certainly try to spin the poll as good news but the truth is that the Quinnipiac Poll reveals that Malloy has completely failed to build up support despite his campaign year effort to use state budget initiatives to persuade voters to give him enough votes so that he can reach the 50 percent level that he needs to win in a head to head race for governor.
While the results of the Q-poll are interesting unto themselves, those who have studied the Connecticut political landscape for years will notice something that is even more interesting.
This Quinnipiac Poll was released on March 4th, weeks after Malloy started his “campaign” to win back key constituencies.
In 1789 it was Benjamin Franklin who said, “…in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”
But here in Connecticut there has been one other constant. At the beginning of each gubernatorial election year, the Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute has conducted a Connecticut poll to measure the level of support of the incumbent governor and examine the status of the upcoming gubernatorial campaign.
Since the Quinnipiac poll started, there have been four gubernatorial election cycles. Q-Polls were released on,
February 18, 1998
February 14, 2002
January 12, 2006
January 21, 2010
But this year, the Quinnipiac Poll wasn’t conducted until much later, well after the incumbent governor has a chance to announce his election year initiatives in an attempt to improve his standing.
It is almost as if Quinnipiac University made a calculated decision to delay their regular Connecticut political poll long enough to give Malloy a chance to improve his numbers.
But when the Quinnipiac Polling Institute’s Director was asked about the timing today, he responded by saying that it is their policy not to discuss the timing of their polls.
Maybe it is just a coincidence that this year’s Q-Poll was conducted weeks after Malloy begin his efforts to push up his ratings higher.