Wait, What?

Another great lesson about the art and science of interpreting public opinion surveys

Feb 15

jonpeltoGubernatorial Election 2014, Malloy, Public Opinion Research, State Politics Gubernatorial Election 2014, Malloy, State Politics 7 Comments

Yesterday, the Hartford Courant’s Rick Green posted an article entitled, “Malloy Approval Ratings Up, Support For Re-Election Still Tepid.”  Green wrote, “A new poll by the Yankee Institute finds that Mayor Dannel P. Malloy has his highest approval rating ever among voters…And while it looks like he faces a tough re-election fight, the governor is no longer trailing an un-named Republican opponent.”

The observation is not necessarily wrong, but it hardly provides the whole picture.

The “election question” was, “If Governor Malloy runs for re-election in the year 2014, will you probably vote for Governor Malloy or probably vote for the Republican candidate?”

According to the survey results;

First off, the number saying that they will vote for Governor Malloy is only up from 39% (in June 2011).  That number is within what is called the statistical margin of error – meaning that it would be factually incorrect to say that he is definitely doing better.  The change could simply be the consequence of a different sample.

Of even more concern for Malloy is the probable vote by party;

To be blunt, having spent decades studying Connecticut’s elections results, a statewide Democratic candidate cannot win with 11% (1 in 10 Democrats voting for the Republican) and another 14% unsure if they will support the Democratic candidate

Second, while Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 2 to 1 margin, it is simply impossible to win a statewide election with the support of only 25% of unaffiliated voters.

That is not to say that things can’t change – but losing at least 10 percent of Democrats only getting the support of 25% of unaffiliated voters will mean certain defeat for Malloy.

Second, this early in the campaign cycle, many pollsters look to job approval ratings as a better indicator of future electoral outcome than questions about imaginary head to head campaigns.

 According to the new Yankee Institute Poll, 54% of Connecticut voters approve of the job Governor Malloy has been doing, 45% disapprove of Malloy’s performance and 2% are unsure.

The key is two-fold.  The first is looking at the number of voters who disapprove of an elected official’s performance because that provides the basis for opponents and the second is to particularly watch what is happening with Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

According to surveys produced by the Yankee Institute the percent disapproving of Malloy’s job performance has been as follows:

 Except for the bounce after the 2011 legislative session, the percent of voters most receptive to anti-Malloy messages has remained virtually unchanged since he took office.

Finally, Malloy’s job performance rating by party provides the most worrisome information at all;

Remembers, to win, a Democratic statewide candidate needs virtually unanimous support from Democrats and needs significant support, although not a majority, from unaffiliated voters.

As the job performance by party reveals, a stunning 22% of Democrats disapprove of Malloy’s performance and 55% of unaffiliated voters disapprove of the Governor’s performance.

The Democrat has consistently sought strategies to alienate important Democratic constituencies and this poll reiterates, again, the impact of that effort.  It is fair to say that as long as nearly 1 in 4 Democrats disapprove of Malloy’s job performance, he cannot win.

And strengthening that assessment is the fact that with such weak support among unaffiliated it would be virtually impossible to make up for the lost Democrats by increasing the percentage of support from unaffiliated.

Again, this doesn’t mean the election is “over,” but as we’ve learned, public opinion polling is an art and a science.  Three important factors are how the questions are worded, who is interviewed and whether the assessment of the data is put in context.

The results from the Yankee Institute survey are hardly good news for Team Malloy.

The Courant’s Rick Green highlights the Malloy administration’s approach to governance

Dec 05

jonpeltoGubernatorial Election 2014, Malloy, State Politics Gubernatorial Election 2014, Malloy, State Politics 25 Comments

In Monday’s Capitol Watch, the Hartford Courant’s foothold in the political news blogosphere, Courant reporter Rick Green posted a piece that successfully portrayed the most fundamental element of the Malloy administration’s approach to governance – their dedication to political gamesmanship 24/7.

The headline read, “Roy v. Rob: Twitter Trash Talk Over Budget Deficit,” and included the text, “Who won this Twitter scrap between state Sen. Rob Kane and Malloy advisor Roy Occhiogrosso?  You decide, but I’d call it a draw. Read from the top down.”

Green was recounting a twitter squabble that took place over a three-hour period on Monday between Republican State Senator Rob Kane and Malloy’s top advisor, Roy Occhiogrosso.

In response to a “tweet” from the Republican State Senator about State Comptroller Kevin Lembo’s announcement that this year’s projected budget deficit had skyrocketed to $415 million and counting, Malloy’s $160,000 chief advisor (he makes more than the Governor), took the time out of his busy schedule to turn to twitter to trash the Republican State Senator.

At 10:33 am, the famously thuggish and bullying Occhiogrosso tweeted, “@SenatorKane32 yep still saying steady, strong, leadership beats running around w/ your hair on fire. You hiding in a bunker somewhere??”

At 11:00 am, Occhiogrosso added, “@SenatorKane32 we don’t take anything lightly but also don’t get hysterical. Rs tried this rap w/ voters last month – how’d that work out?”

And five minutes later, at 11:35 am, Occhiogrosso yelped, “@SenatorKane32 you tried pinning the state’s problems on him and voters rejected that argument. Thankfully they’re smarter than you think.”

Another two minutes and Occhiogrosso tweeted, “@SenatorKane32 Deficit is 1/10 what it was, unemployment is down, govt is smaller. You’re entitled to your own hysteria, not your own facts.”

Starting back up at 1:34 pm Occhiogrosso sent out a tweet saying, “@SenatorKane32 http://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/ctnonfarmemployment.asp …

And then again at 1:39 pm added “@SenatorKane32 @ComptroLLembo nope, just you. Just like you were here: http://www.ctmirror.org/story/17858/mcmahon-christie …, and here: http://www.ctmirror.org/story/17673/roraback-esty-race-study-different-strategies …”

Of course, right off the bat, two issues become apparent.

First, as an aside, this year’s $415 million dollar deficit and next year’s 1.1 billion shortfall IS NOT “1/10th what it was,” when Malloy took office.  (Occhiogrosso’s tweeter feed reveals that he made similar claims when he attacked CT Mirror reporter Keith Phaneuf for writing a piece, a couple of weeks ago, about the growing budget deficit).

But more to the point, Occhiogrosso’s tirade is more than a commentary on the Malloy Administration’s sense of propriety and priorities.  Engaging in political activities, while on state time, is rather frowned upon under Connecticut state law.  In fact, it is illegal and people have been fired for the offense.

And as if the exchange with State Senator Kane wasn’t a strong enough indication that Occhiogrosso uses his twitter account is engage in political activities during work hours, his twitter record is ripe with other examples.

A few days earlier, upon news that Tom Foley was considering running for Governor again, Occhiogrosso again took time out from his state job to send out a flurry of tweets including one that read “…”Tom Foley=Mitt Romney http://www.ctmirror.org/story/6930/fedele-hits-foley-hard-new-ad-over-business-failure …” and another in which Occhiogrosso tweeted a picture of Foley and Romney writing, “a match made in heaven: pic.twitter.com/3EEkdbEd”

In fact, Occhiogrosso’s tweeter feed tells a lengthy story of political positioning and dialogue while he is supposed to be doing the people’s business.

Two days after the election, for example, Malloy’s top advisor engaged in more than a dozen exchanges with a Republican political operative while he was supposed to be working.  In one he tweeted, “ just admit your strategy was wrong, and that you got waxed. Rs facebook status: back @ the drawing board.”

While these violations of law are relatively minor, they speak volumes about how important political positioning is to this administration.

Occhiogrosso’s actions are quite a commentary about how the Governor and the Governor’s Chief of Staff are either unwilling or unable to keep the office staff focused on the role of governing, letting them instead waste time and taxpayer funds engaged in arrogant and mean-spirited efforts to attack anyone and everyone who criticizes this administration.

“Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results” – Really?

Nov 12

jonpeltoMalloy, State Politics Democratic Nomination, Gubernatorial Election 2014, Malloy, State Politics 22 Comments

The shift to the 2014 gubernatorial campaign kicked into gear even before the 2012 candidates had given their acceptance and concession speeches last week.

As the polls closed this year, Chairwoman of the Connecticut Democratic Party wrote, “Now that voters have spoken, here’s what we know — Governor Malloy wins, the Republicans lose, and the people of Connecticut win,”

Lt. Governor Nancy Wyman introduced Malloy by saying, “The one constant in all the turmoil that all the people of Connecticut has endured is the rock steady command of their governor.”

The CT Mirror, CTNewjunkie and other media outlets ran stories about the Governor and the Republicans trying to out-do each other with arguments about what this year’s election results mean for Governor Malloy’s expected attempt to seek a second term.

And, as is their style, Malloy and his inner circle mocked the Republican legislative leadership.

The CTMirror led the discussion with a story entitled, “Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results”

The fact is, Governor Malloy’s post-election comments were a reminder that he and his political operatives have never left campaign mode and aren’t about to change that strategy as they focus on the 2014 election cycle.

Speaking to the media last Thursday, Malloy reiterated his vow to, “balance the next budget without new taxes.”  No new taxes, despite the fact that although the Malloy Administration claimed the state deficit was only $60 million in the days before the election, by Friday after the election, they admitted that the actual deficit was closer to $300 million and growing.

So what did the 2012 election really reveal about the 2014 gubernatorial campaign?

Every election signals, to some degree or another, what the electorate is thinking, but to suggest that these results are good news for Governor Malloy or that they vindicate his performance is, as the saying goes, a bit optimistic.

According to all the available polling information around the country, Governor Malloy remains the least popular Democratic governor in the nation.

Here are the facts;

President Obama got about 58% of the vote in Connecticut.

In its last public opinion survey in late October, the Quinnipiac poll had the President beating Romney 55 to 41 percent with 4 percent saying that they didn’t know who they’d be voting for this year.  Extrapolate out the people who said “don’t know” and the Q-Poll hit the mark when compared to the actual results.  It was also very close with the Murphy vs. McMahon race.

So what did it take for Obama to get 58 percent of the vote on Election Day 2012?

The President’s favorable “job performance” rating with Connecticut voters was 56 percent.

Obama’s favorable rating among Democrats was a stunning 92 percent, and he even had a 50 – 48 percent favorable rating with the all-important, Republican leaning, unaffiliated (independent) voters.

However, while Connecticut voters had a very positive opinion of President Obama’s job performance, they only give Governor Malloy an overall positive job performance rating of 45 percent.

More to the point, Malloy’s favorable number among Democrats was only 66 percent, a stunning 26 percentage points below the President’s rating.

And in a state in which a state-wide Democratic candidate cannot win without a good portion of the independent or unaffiliated voters, only 39 percent of unaffiliated voters give Governor Malloy a favorable job performance rating.

It is only November 2012, there is still time, but the last thing the Malloy Administration should want is for the media, or anyone else, to be looking into the 2012 numbers for guidance about 2014.

In fact, the one conclusion the leaps out, is the data reveals that Malloy’s low job rating among Democrats, and especially among women, is so low that it bolsters the notion that if someone chose to challenge Malloy for the Democratic nomination, it most certainly wouldn’t be a cakewalk for the incumbent.

Take for example, the depth of feeling among those who, at least, say they have a favorable opinion of the job Malloy is doing as Governor.

Of the 92 percent of Democrats who approve of the job President Obama is doing, seven in ten (69 percent) of those Democrats say they STRONLGY APPROVE of the job Obama is doing.

Of those same Democrats, less than 4 in 10 (38 percent) say that they STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Governor Malloy is doing.

The polling data reveals that Connecticut’s Democrats do not strongly support the incumbent Democratic Governor.  This situation is reiterated by the news that 1 in 5 Democrats actually disapprove of the Governor’s job performance.

As bad as the news is for a potential Democratic Primary, the news for Malloy is even worse when it comes to a potential General Election match-up.

While a quarter of all unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job President Obama is doing, a breathtakingly insignificant 8 percent of unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.

Equally troubling is that where 41 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job the President has been doing, only 16 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.

One thing is clear is that Malloy and the State Republicans were engaged in so much political spin about what the 2012 election meant for the 2014 race last week, that they both lost contact with reality and the truth.

Cut through all the bull, and the truth is that the Malloy and his political operation should be extremely worried about this year’s election results.  When one in five Democratic voters has a negative opinion of Malloy’s job performance, it is definitely time to worry about the level of support among the Democratic base.   This should come as no surprise to Malloy’s people, considering the way he has treated state employees, teachers and other core Democratic constituencies.

However, that said, it is premature to say too much about 2014 considering Governor Malloy still has the 2013 Legislative Session to rebuild his level of support among the Democratic base – or further undermine their level of support – as he moves toward the 2014 election cycle.

For those familiar with polling data, here are the numbers that paint the troubling situation facing Governor Malloy.  For those who haven’t read a lot of polls, just look to the numbers in bold.  No one should underestimate just how serious these numbers are.

You can find the CTMirror story here: http://www.ctmirror.org/story/18157/malloy-sees-vindication-2012-election-results and the CT Newsjunkie story here: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/ctnj.php/archives/entry/malloy_who_me/

The New Normal: When in doubt, resort to insults.

Jul 02

jonpeltoBridgeport, Malloy, State Politics Malloy, State Politics 2 Comments

“If they’re not paying attention, it’s not my obligation to read to them everything that’s happened…”                -  Governor Dan Malloy at the June 29, 2012 Bond Commission Meeting

Last Friday, the State Bond Commission met to allocate funds for various capital projects and Ken Dixon, the Connecticut Post’s capitol reporter, wrote about a moment that drives home the tone that pervades Connecticut and American politics these days.

The actual issue related to a $2.8 million grant to Bridgeport and the North End Boys & Girls Club to fix up a building to be used as a youth center.  Apparently the legislature approved the funding a dozen years ago, but “political squabbling” in Bridgeport, has kept the project from getting off the ground. Last month, the Malloy Administration put the project on the Bond Commission Agenda so that the funds could be allocated, but then quietly removed it from the agenda the day of the meeting.

In response, this past Friday, Andrew Roraback, a Republican State Senator who serves on the Bond Commission, complained that he hadn’t realized the item had been removed and that Governor Malloy, who chairs the Bond Commission Meetings, should have been clearer when he pulled the item off the agenda.

Roraback pointed out that it was the Governor’s duty to inform “the press, the public and most importantly, fellow bond commission members that there had been a material change in the composition of the agenda.” Roraback’s position was that the Governor hadn’t been clear.

According to Dixon, to that Governor Malloy said that it wasn’t his job to make sure Senator Roraback was paying attention.  Roy Occhiogrosso, the governor’s chief advisor, even followed up a bit later by going to the press room and telling the media, “Let’s talk about what this is really about: He’s running for Congress…He should run for Congress outside the building.”

Now, I have no idea if Senator Roraback was trying to garner media attention or not, although my guess is he was genuinely concerned that a fairly significant change was made to the meeting’s agenda and, in fact, the action wasn’t sufficiently explained.

However, that particular piece of information is irrelevant.  Malloy and Occhiogrosso, like all good politicians, know perfectly well that elected officials and candidates are constantly seeking ways to use opportunities to get quoted in the media.

The strange part of the whole story is that both Malloy and Occhiogrosso chose to use the moment to insult Roraback’s character.

For the Governor who ran on a platform of “transparency,” why not simply say I’m sorry if I didn’t properly explain the change in the agenda.  We’ll try to do better next time. [And in fact, that is what OPM Secretary Barnes did separately do.]

But for reasons that remain a bit of mystery, the standard operating procedure, these days, is to insult your opponent’s character rather than discuss and debate the substance of the issue.

For more on this story read:  http://onlyinbridgeport.com/wordpress/bridgeport-battle-at-bond-commission/#more-34520

Memo to Connecticut Democrats (ONLY); All others should skip this post

May 07

jonpeltoEducation Reform, Malloy, State Politics Democrats, Education Reform, Malloy, State Politics 43 Comments

[Now that it is just us Democrats here; let’s take a moment to talk politics].

There were seven new Democratic Governors elected in the United States in 2010.  Today, when it comes to measuring each governor’s support from members of their own party;

One new Democratic governor’s job performance rating among Democrats is +80 percent

Two new Democratic governors are about +65 percent

Two new Democratic governors about are about +55 percent

One new Democratic governor one is at +45 percent

And then, according to the last Quinnipiac poll, one new Democratic governor is at a breathtakingly low +19 percent.

That is right – there is a Democratic governor whose support among his own party is only a positive 19 percent.  Less than one-quarter of the support the most popular new Democratic governor has….and that lowest in the nation governor is Dannel Malloy.

The “Education Reform” Debate:

Governor Malloy and the proponents of his “education reform” bill often claim that Connecticut’s legislators should pass Malloy’s version of Senate Bill #24 because “the voters support education reform” and “every other state is doing it.”

In his state of the state speech, Malloy talked about these reforms being adopted in 35 other states.  ConnCAN’s CEO, Patrick Riccards, likes to say that “Connecticut’s reform bill is mild compared to that in other states.”

As we now know, both statements are false.

But more importantly, we are taught early in life that just because “everyone else is doing it” doesn’t mean we should and as Democrats, we believe that public policy should be driven by doing the right thing rather than what is politically expedient according to public opinion polls. (Although, truth be told, it isn’t even accurate to claim that Connecticut voters “support” these education reforms.  They support having better schools but are mixed on some of the individual proposals.)

In any case, while we don’t believe in governance by polling, we Democrats do recognize the importance of representing our constituents, especially those who took the time to go to the polls to cast their votes for our candidates.  After all, that is why America is called a ”representative democracy.”

In Connecticut, Democrats win when we have strong support from our political base and do fairly well among unaffiliated voters.  Since Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 2-1 margin at the statewide level, when Democrats receive overwhelming support from Democratic voters, our candidates can actually win with a minority of unaffiliated voters.  Of course at the congressional and legislative level, in order to be successful, candidates must get a big Democratic vote and the majority of unaffiliated voters in order to be victorious.

The gubernatorial election of 2010 was a perfect example.  Dan Malloy won that election with just 49 percent of the popular vote.  According to the last Quinnipiac Poll, released just hours before the election, 88 percent of Democrats intended to vote for Dan Malloy, 9 percent of Democrats intended to vote for Tom Foley and only 3 percent were undecided or said that they would vote for someone else.

That 88 percent, along with a minority of unaffiliated voters, gave the Democrats control of the governor’s office after 20 years.

Now here we are – eighteen months later.

One of the most traditional ways to understand voter attitudes is to measure an elected official’s “job-performance” rating.  While job performance is not a perfectly predictor of how people will vote in the future, it is a fairly good indicator of the overall level of support among various sub-constituencies such as party affiliation.

Last week, Quinnipiac University released a new poll revealing that 37 percent of all Connecticut voters’ approved of the way Governor Malloy is handling his job, 44 percent disapprove of his job performance and 19 percent are undecided or neither approve or disapprove of the way he is conducting his job as governor.

Quite frankly, it is far too early to worry too much about the overall numbers; besides, we know that the key measure is where Democrats stand, since in the end, a strong Democratic base is the fundamental building block to a successful election.

To date, Governor Malloy’s strategy has often been to confront and attack key constituencies within his own party.  Last year Governor Malloy proposed record budget cuts, including cuts to services that are traditionally supported by Democrats.  He also entered into a long and confrontational battle with our state employees.

This year, under the guise of “education reform,” Malloy has proposed the most anti-teacher, anti-union “education reform” bill of any Democratic governor in the nation.

In the forty years since public employees won the right to collectively bargain, no Connecticut governor; Democrat, Republican or Independent has ever proposed that collective bargaining be banned for a group of public employees.  But that is exactly what Governor Malloy has done.

The Governor’s job performance rating is a measurement of the impact his confrontational approach has had with key constituencies within the Democratic Party.

The following chart indicates how Connecticut Democratic voters rate Governor Malloy’s job performance.  In politics we use a statistic that measures the rate of approval compared to the rate of disapproval – we call that the overall positive or negative rating of an individual (i.e. +/-). The higher the positive rating the better the candidate or elected officials is doing.

Except for a bounce in March 2012, what is particularly noteworthy is Governor Malloy’s job performance rating, among Democrats, has been trending dramatically downward since the day he took office.

Malloy versus other new Democratic Governors;

In addition, what has been happening with Governor Malloy becomes even more pronounced when one looks at where Malloy stands against the other new Democratic governors around the nation. (There were seven new Democratic governors in the Class of 2011).  All data here are from recent, independent public opinion surveys.

Shocking is rather an understatement.

In Minnesota, Governor Dayton just vetoed an “education reform” bill that was being pushed by 50CAN, the national outgrowth of ConnCAN and formed by the same people who founded Achievement First.  Even before vetoing that bill, Dayton’s support among Minnesota Democrats was +80 percent compared to Malloy’s + 19 percent among Democrats.

Again, as noted above, we Democrats do not lead by poll results but we also have a fundamental duty to look at whether we are successfully representing the people who put us in office.

It is time to have an honest discussion about what happens when a governor spends his time confronting and alienating some of the most basic elements of our party.

When in doubt, just say it doesn’t matter; Malloy’s Job Approval Rating Drops 7 Percent in a Month

Apr 25

jonpeltoEducation Reform, Malloy, State Politics Education Reform, Malloy, State Politics 8 Comments

Malloy’s Job Approval Rating Drops 7 percent in a month

With today’s Quinnipiac Poll reporting that only 37% of the voters approve of the way Governor Malloy is doing his job and only 38% approve of the way he is handling education policy, Roy Occhiogrosso, Malloy’s mouthpiece and spin-master, is absolutely right to say;

“We have tried to be consistent in not saying much about polls because…what’s there to say?  Polls come and go, numbers go up and down.  The Governor always does what he thinks is best for the state and the right thing to do.”  – Occhiogrosso 4-25-12

Polls do come and go and – as the cliché goes – the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day!

That said, after what is probably close to $1 million in television and radio ads supporting the Governor’s “Education Reform” proposal, ads that repeatedly complimented him by name, it is pretty telling that his job performance rating has dropped 7 percent in the last 30 days (from 44% positive to 37% positive).

Furthermore, only 4 in 10 voters support his education plan.

His negative rating on both job performance and on his education policies are particularly high among women – who, as Occhiogrosso and every political observer knows – is the most significant voting bloc in electoral politics.

From today’s Quinnipiac Poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dannel Malloy is handling his job as Governor?

The Quinnipiac Poll has its own host of issues when it comes to how reliable a measure it is over where likely voters stand, for someone who won with 49 percent of the vote – almost all of that coming from Democratic voters – it is extremely telling that only 51 percent of Democrats approve of Malloy’s job performance and he doesn’t even get to 50% of Democrats supporting him on his education policy.

For the full survey results check out http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?ReleaseID=1739&What=&strArea=1;&strTime=0

Using mental health as a political weapon….

Mar 04

jonpeltoMalloy, State Politics Malloy, State Politics 7 Comments

In the spring of 2009, long before the campaign for governor really took shape, I received a number of phone calls from Connecticut reporters seeking my opinion in my capacity as a “long-time Democratic political analyst.”

Since I was not supporting any of the potential gubernatorial candidates at the time, reporters knew they could come to me for an unbiased assessment of how various developments might impact the race for governor.

Following the second arrest of one of Dan Malloy’s sons there was talk, within political circles, about whether Malloy should or could now successfully run for Governor.  One of the other gubernatorial contenders, Jim Amann, Connecticut’s former Speaker of the House went so far as to announce that if he was in Malloy’s shoes he would have immediately dropped out of the race.

Only weeks before, Mark Pazniokas wrote a powerful article for the New York Times entitled “A Public Couple Knows a Private Pain Isn’t Unique.” In the article Dan and Cathy Malloy spoke passionately about their love for their son and challenges that families face when dealing with a family member who has emotional or mental health problems. More

“…only thing you have to do is show up for four years.” – Dan Malloy

Feb 14

jonpeltoEducation Reform, Malloy, Teacher Tenure Education Reform, Malloy, State Politics, Teacher Tenure 27 Comments

No he wasn’t talking about being Governor; he was talking about being a Connecticut public school teacher…

Photo courtesy of Hugh McQuaid, CTNewsjunkie

Reading it for the 10^th time and it still makes me cringe.

In his State of the State speech on February 8, 2012 Governor Dan Malloy began his discussion about the issue of teacher tenure by saying “In today’s system basically the only thing you have to do is show up for four years.  Do that, and tenure is yours.”

My first thought was how Malloy’s speech writer, Roy Occhiogrosso, could put such a bizarre, insulting and ignorant line into the Governor’s speech.  Occhiogrosso, who is fond of telling reporters that he’s not a “numbers guy” would describe himself more of a “message guy.”  However, best message or not, one does have the responsibility to at least know the facts surrounding an issue.

My second and even more disturbing thought was how Governor Malloy could say such a bizarre, insulting and ignorant thing.

And not only is it bizarre, insulting and ignorant but it’s just not true – and Dan Malloy (or at least Nancy Wyman) knows it.

The law in Connecticut is actually very clear.  School administrators have four years to evaluate and, if appropriate, remove teachers prior to the teacher earning tenure status.

Only five states in the country have longer probationary periods.

The Center for American Progress, one of the many “education reform” groups pushing to reform the teacher training and certification system laid out what it considered best practices.

The Center for American Progress wrote:

“The probationary period would be at least three years, during which teachers would be observed at least twice annually. Evaluation systems would consider student achievement as a preponderant criterion. Probationary teachers with more than one poor observation would be given limited support and then terminated if they do not improve It’s time for districts to take advantage of this time period to weed out ineffective teachers.”

Not only does Connecticut have one of the longest probationary periods in the country but take a moment to read the state’s PRESENT law about evaluating teachers;

The Connecticut State law;

• Requires school districts to continuously evaluate their teachers and makes a district’s school superintendent responsible for implementing that requirement.

• Evaluations must address strengths, areas needing improvement, indicators of improvement strategies and utilize multiple measures of the academic growth of the teacher’s students.

• School district’s evaluation programs must be consistent with State Board of Education guidelines. 

• And superintendents MUST report the status of their teacher evaluation programs by June 1^st of every year.

The truth is that school administrators may not be doing their job, but the law couldn’t be more clear and forthright about how teacher evaluations are supposed to work.

Somehow the Governor FAILED to provide those rather critical “details” in his teacher bashing speech.

The Truth about Probationary Periods:

In his State of the State address, Governor Malloy said “Since 2009, 31 states have enacted tenure reform, including our neighboring states of New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. It’s time for Connecticut to act. ”

The following 2011 National Council on Teacher Quality report includes most of the “reforms” that have taken place in other states:

Source:  National Council on Teacher Quality, 2011 State Teacher Policy

When Malloy said that since 2009, 31 states have enacted tenure reform, I’m thinking no one briefed him on the major reforms Connecticut adopted in 2010.

In that year the General Assembly adopted and Governor Rell signed Public Act 10-111 which specifically strengthened the evaluation process by requiring that districts must “continuously evaluate or cause to be evaluated each teacher”, adding the section requiring districts to use “multiple indicators of student academic growth” and giving the State Board of Education the authority to develop guidelines that the districts must follow.

In the 2010 law the deadline for the State Board of Education to adopt the guidelines for teacher evaluation was no later than July 1, 2013 and some guidelines must instruct local education officials as to the “minimum requirements for teacher evaluation instruments and procedures.”

Considering the fact that Connecticut is already mandated to develop much more aggressive evaluation systems, let’s journey back to the February 8, 2012 State of the State Address and see how Governor Dannel Malloy could have handled the situation.

Imagine where we would be today if Governor Malloy had decided to put the interests and needs of Connecticut and its education system above his ongoing effort to become renowned as the “tough, take no prisoners” governor.

His state of the state speech would have sounded very different.  Instead of the bravado and political pandering aimed at trashing teachers and blaming them for our inability to overcome the incredible challenges facing our education system, especially those in our state’s urban school systems, the Governor could have and should have said something like the following;

“Connecticut, like states all across this nation is looking for how to ensure that our children receive the knowledge and skills they need in order to succeed in today’s increasing complex global economic system.

Producing better educational outcomes will not only provide Connecticut’s children with a better, brighter and more prosperous future but it will ensure that our state has the quality workforce that our economy will needed to compete and succeed in the decades to come.

The fact is – Connecticut is already becoming a leader in this critical endeavor.

One thing is clear and that is school systems need time to evaluate new teachers, to identify their strengths and their weaknesses and implement plans to consistently improve the quality of teaching in our classrooms.

Here in Connecticut we require new teachers to have a probationary period of 4 years – enough time to conduct effective evaluations programs to determine whether each new teacher really has what it takes to be a truly effective teacher for Connecticut’s public schools.

And it’s important to note that at any time during those four years local school administrators have the authority to relieve the less successful teachers of their jobs.

Today, about thirty-nine other states have shorter probationary periods but in Connecticut we all recognize – state officials, local education officials and teachers and education advocates that we are better off with a longer probationary period so that the evaluations, assessments and decisions about which teachers should stay can be made.

Second, thanks to the leadership of many in you this chamber, in 2010, Connecticut adopted a much stronger, more sensible and effective teacher evaluation process.  That process requires local schools administrators to continuously evaluate every teacher and that the evaluation process uses multiple indicators of student academic growth to identify which teachers are succeeding and which need to be asked to leave the teaching profession.

The 2010 law gives our State Board of Education the authority to adopt a standard set of guidelines that will set out the requirements for teacher evaluation instruments and procedures.

Although the law allows the state government until July 2013 to produce those guidelines, I recognize that it is vitally important that this updated teacher evaluation process be put in place so I’ve instructed our Commissioner of Education to have those rules in place no later than December 31 of this year – so we can begin the upgraded the teacher evaluation process sooner.

Finally, I want to address the issue of tenure versus how best to terminate those teachers who aren’t right for today’s classrooms.

In many states this has become an ugly battle, full of confrontation and useless bickering.

We are not going to let that happen here.

The issue is not whether teachers should have due process rights – in this country – we proudly recognize that the importance of due process and are constantly seeking mechanism to expand due process not restrict it.

The question is that once we have effective teacher evaluations systems in place, teachers who don’t make the grade need to be released so we can get a better, more dedicated and more capable teacher into the classroom.

In the past, the lengthy process for removing an unsatisfactory teacher has hurt the quality of education in Connecticut and the reputation of the teaching profession.

The timeline for removing a bad teacher has been long and the process has become too expensive leading some school administrators to determine that it is better to simply leave the failing teacher in the classroom.

We can and will reform that process.

The education commissioner and I have already been meeting with Connecticut’s teacher unions and today I’m proud that we are putting forward a major reform plan that will significantly reduce the timeline and the cost of getting under-performing teachers out of the classroom.

Instead of having a process that could last a year and costs tens of thousands of dollars, this plan will get the bad teacher out of the classroom immediately and off the payroll and out of the teaching profession in a matter no more than 90 days.  This plan will also mean real financial savings for local education budgets, funds that can now be put into improving the quality of our schools.

I know and you know that there is no greater profession than education.

There is not a job that is more important than giving today’s children the knowledge and tools to succeed.

Together, in this the Year of Education, we can and will do exactly that.”

[So Governor Malloy – it’s not too late to do the right thing and get “education reform” back on track].

Governor M. Jodi Rell: A legacy of saying one thing, but doing another.

Jan 04

jonpeltoRell, State Politics Rell, State Politics 2 Comments

Rell and McMahon

 

As Governor Rell and her team leave the Capitol today, they leave with a virtually unbroken record of missed opportunities and lost potential.  Here are just a few of her more memorable comments over the last few years.

Note that in each case, her words preceded or followed her taking or allowing exactly the opposite to happen.

“The easy way out is to approve an early retirement plan one year but not pay out sick and vacation time to deserving employees until three years later. Unfortunately, later is now.”  (A plan she approved)

“This continuing spike in gas prices is bad for consumers, bad for our economy, and bad for all other businesses. It is hurting us and costing us jobs. ” (Rell having supported massive increases in the petroleum wholesale tax the skyrocketed as prices rose).

“We cannot put off the difficult decisions for another day, another generation.”  (This from the Governor who proposed and supported putting off the difficult decisions for another day, another generation).

“I have kept a steady focus on restoring public faith in our state government since taking office July 1. Now it is time to make even bigger and bolder gains through legislative action.”  (While Lisa Moody handed out donation envelopes on state time and the Governor’s Office used state funds to hire and conduct a political polling operation).

“I’m angry when we have to use state dollars to fill holes in our low-income heating assistance program because there isn’t enough support from Washington. “ (The Governor who used a billion dollars in Stimulus funds for on-going activities rather than one time costs that would create jobs and strengthen the economy).

“Our libraries are valuable centers of education, learning and enrichment for people of all ages. In recent years, libraries have taken on an increasingly important role. Today’s libraries are about much more than books.”  (Then proposed cutting libraries)

“The best math lesson we can teach college students this year is to subtract a tuition increase and benefit from the dividends of higher education. “ (Pushed for a “tuition freeze” after her trustees supported the skyrocketing tuitions, then cut the amount of state funds for higher education, leaving the students paying more and getting less).

“I can understand the confusion and questions that people have, so let me be quite clear: I do not and will not support cuts to the Metro-North branch lines…” (After her own budget officials proposed closing down the Metro-North branch line after spending tens of millions to upgrade that same line).

And the list goes on and on and one.

Twelve noon and the swearing-in of Governor Dan Malloy couldn’t come soon enough.

Congratulations to Dan Malloy and Nancy Wyman. 

The job they are taking on is daunting but if anyone can do it – they can.