“Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results” – Really?

22 Comments

The shift to the 2014 gubernatorial campaign kicked into gear even before the 2012 candidates had given their acceptance and concession speeches last week.

As the polls closed this year, Chairwoman of the Connecticut Democratic Party wrote, “Now that voters have spoken, here’s what we know — Governor Malloy wins, the Republicans lose, and the people of Connecticut win,”

Lt. Governor Nancy Wyman introduced Malloy by saying, “The one constant in all the turmoil that all the people of Connecticut has endured is the rock steady command of their governor.”

The CT Mirror, CTNewjunkie and other media outlets ran stories about the Governor and the Republicans trying to out-do each other with arguments about what this year’s election results mean for Governor Malloy’s expected attempt to seek a second term.

And, as is their style, Malloy and his inner circle mocked the Republican legislative leadership.

The CTMirror led the discussion with a story entitled, “Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results”

The fact is, Governor Malloy’s post-election comments were a reminder that he and his political operatives have never left campaign mode and aren’t about to change that strategy as they focus on the 2014 election cycle.

Speaking to the media last Thursday, Malloy reiterated his vow to, “balance the next budget without new taxes.”  No new taxes, despite the fact that although the Malloy Administration claimed the state deficit was only $60 million in the days before the election, by Friday after the election, they admitted that the actual deficit was closer to $300 million and growing.

So what did the 2012 election really reveal about the 2014 gubernatorial campaign?

Every election signals, to some degree or another, what the electorate is thinking, but to suggest that these results are good news for Governor Malloy or that they vindicate his performance is, as the saying goes, a bit optimistic.

According to all the available polling information around the country, Governor Malloy remains the least popular Democratic governor in the nation.

Here are the facts;

President Obama got about 58% of the vote in Connecticut.

In its last public opinion survey in late October, the Quinnipiac poll had the President beating Romney 55 to 41 percent with 4 percent saying that they didn’t know who they’d be voting for this year.  Extrapolate out the people who said “don’t know” and the Q-Poll hit the mark when compared to the actual results.  It was also very close with the Murphy vs. McMahon race.

So what did it take for Obama to get 58 percent of the vote on Election Day 2012?

The President’s favorable “job performance” rating with Connecticut voters was 56 percent.

Obama’s favorable rating among Democrats was a stunning 92 percent, and he even had a 50 – 48 percent favorable rating with the all-important, Republican leaning, unaffiliated (independent) voters.

However, while Connecticut voters had a very positive opinion of President Obama’s job performance, they only give Governor Malloy an overall positive job performance rating of 45 percent.

More to the point, Malloy’s favorable number among Democrats was only 66 percent, a stunning 26 percentage points below the President’s rating.

And in a state in which a state-wide Democratic candidate cannot win without a good portion of the independent or unaffiliated voters, only 39 percent of unaffiliated voters give Governor Malloy a favorable job performance rating.

It is only November 2012, there is still time, but the last thing the Malloy Administration should want is for the media, or anyone else, to be looking into the 2012 numbers for guidance about 2014.

In fact, the one conclusion the leaps out, is the data reveals that Malloy’s low job rating among Democrats, and especially among women, is so low that it bolsters the notion that if someone chose to challenge Malloy for the Democratic nomination, it most certainly wouldn’t be a cakewalk for the incumbent.

Take for example, the depth of feeling among those who, at least, say they have a favorable opinion of the job Malloy is doing as Governor.

Of the 92 percent of Democrats who approve of the job President Obama is doing, seven in ten (69 percent) of those Democrats say they STRONLGY APPROVE of the job Obama is doing.

Of those same Democrats, less than 4 in 10 (38 percent) say that they STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Governor Malloy is doing.

The polling data reveals that Connecticut’s Democrats do not strongly support the incumbent Democratic Governor.  This situation is reiterated by the news that 1 in 5 Democrats actually disapprove of the Governor’s job performance.

As bad as the news is for a potential Democratic Primary, the news for Malloy is even worse when it comes to a potential General Election match-up.

While a quarter of all unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job President Obama is doing, a breathtakingly insignificant 8 percent of unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.

Equally troubling is that where 41 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job the President has been doing, only 16 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.

One thing is clear is that Malloy and the State Republicans were engaged in so much political spin about what the 2012 election meant for the 2014 race last week, that they both lost contact with reality and the truth.

Cut through all the bull, and the truth is that the Malloy and his political operation should be extremely worried about this year’s election results.  When one in five Democratic voters has a negative opinion of Malloy’s job performance, it is definitely time to worry about the level of support among the Democratic base.   This should come as no surprise to Malloy’s people, considering the way he has treated state employees, teachers and other core Democratic constituencies.

However, that said, it is premature to say too much about 2014 considering Governor Malloy still has the 2013 Legislative Session to rebuild his level of support among the Democratic base – or further undermine their level of support – as he moves toward the 2014 election cycle.

For those familiar with polling data, here are the numbers that paint the troubling situation facing Governor Malloy.  For those who haven’t read a lot of polls, just look to the numbers in bold.  No one should underestimate just how serious these numbers are.

Obama Job Rating October 2012

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Women

Approve

56

8

92

50

50

61

Disapprove

42

90

6

48

48

37

DK/NA/

2

2

2

2

2

3

Malloy Job Rating October 2012

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Women

Approve

45

23

66

39

45

45

Disapprove

41

62

20

49

46

38

DK/NA/

14

15

13

12

9

18

Data by intensity of opinion
Obama Job Rating October 2012

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Women

Strongly Approve

37

3

69

26

32

41

Somewhat Approve

19

5

23

24

18

20

Somewhat Disapprove

7

8

1

11

9

5

Strongly Disapprove

35

82

5

38

39

32

DK/NA/

2

2

2

2

2

3

Malloy Job Rating October 2012

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Men

Women

Strongly Approve

14

4

28

8

12

16

Somewhat Approve

30

19

38

31

33

28

Somewhat Disapprove

16

19

10

18

19

13

Strongly Disapprove

26

42

10

30

27

25

DK/NA

14

16

14

32

9

18

 

You can find the CTMirror story here: http://www.ctmirror.org/story/18157/malloy-sees-vindication-2012-election-results and the CT Newsjunkie story here: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/ctnj.php/archives/entry/malloy_who_me/

  • apartheid first

    Let’s hope someone challenges Malloy to a primary, if he decides to run in 2014–and does not go the way of some other governors of recent memory.

  • JMC

    As so often, Jon, your analyses and conclusions are compelling. And they lead me ( and yourself?) to conclude that Malloy may not be here in CT for his next reelection campaign – much like the School Choice supremos who fire, manoeuver, put out a false narrative, then move on after claiming success to higher career benchmarks. In the meantime Malloy will continue to send out the lubricious, repugnant Ochiogrosso to lie, impugn, obfuscate, and stall. Hizzoner’s legislative lieutenants will continue to do the tightrope balancing act, lending a seemingly sympathetic ear to outraged – if outnumbered – loyal citizens who actually understand what is happening to their beloved state (and here again, Jon, your work has been indispensible), even while those same politicians perpetuate abominations like the unconscionable masking of the real budget crisis before a watershed Nov. election.

    But to conservatives like myself this now seems standard SOP for the “Progressive” masterminders.

    In two years, when some current progressive legislators are facing some real opposition in Nov, there may be some concern, but meanwhile it’s full speed ahead – Forward – over the cliff.

    • Jon Kantrowitz

      lubricious: 1. Having a slippery or smooth quality. 2. Shifty or tricky. 3. a. Lewd; wanton. b. Sexually stimulating. ( I had to look it up)

      I know the definition of progressive however, and believe me, Malloy is no progressive.

    • Bill Morrison

      I also am confused by your use of the word “progressive”. The current crop of “reformers” have nothing to do with Progressivism; they are corrupt and manipulative liars who are in our state for their own personal gain. They do not care about the devastation and the victims they leave behind. Just witness the many frauds committed by Vallas, Adamowski, and Pryor, and the utter maliciousness exhibited by Malloy in support of those three charlatans.

  • msavage

    There is not a chance in HELL that Malloy would have even a chance of winning were he to run for reelection right now. Of that I am certain. Not a chance in hell–blue state or no. I don’t know a SINGLE person–Dem., Republican, Green, Independent, Tea Party or Other, not a SINGLE person, who thinks Malloy is doing a good job for CT. The ONLY people I’ve heard sing his praises are his fellow legislators–obsequious and disingenuous as they are. Fellow legislators, CEO’s, appointees, heads of universities, etc. Anyone who has something to gain from ass-kissing the gov. Your average CT citizen absolutely detests Malloy.

    So, what would the process be for beginning to vet a replacement now? Screw the major parties. How do we get a Green into the Gov’s office?

  • jschmidt2

    Unless the voters learn their lesson by then, Malloy will have a second term. I have not seen an evidence that the voters have ever punished Democrat in this state which is why Democrats take these voters for granted. Yes Malloy has raised taxes for his ridiculous busway, and his first five.spending 900 million more when we were facing a deficit. The unions will back him when faced with a Republican who they know will cut government spending and probably union jobs. Instead of lowering taxes for businesses, he only rewards the businesses that give him some wavering assurance they’ll add more jobs. But even though Malloy doesn’t care about the taxpayer, the voters have no tendency to vote in a Republican. Of course I don’t know how Malloy and the Democrats will blame the dismal economy on Republicans since the Republicans have never controlled the legislature, but I’m sure they will try.

    • Guest

      If the Republicans can field a viable candidate that is more centrist than far right they can easily win the governor’s seat in 2014. A hack and cut, borrow and spend right winger is not what this state needs. Foley is not what Connecticut needs.

      CT needs a steady leader to balance the ship. If the Democrats can field a candidate that is more centrist and is more in touch with regular people they too can win the governor’s seat.

      Malloy isn’t the person for that job. I don’t see union membership backing him. Maybe union leadership will back him, but the ordinary folks won’t give Malloy their vote.

      • msavage

        I agree–union leadership probably would back him. But the vast majority of union rank and file will not. At least, they won’t unless he does a complete 180 over the next couple of years.

        • jschmidt2

          I can only hope you are all correct. It would help if the Republicans didn’t emphasize their no hope social platform of anti gay, anti abortion. I don’t agree with abortion but I think advertising being anti is an impediment to getting better leaders in power. We need to focus on the economy. Everything else is extraneous,

          • Linda174

            Yes, republicans need to get out of the business of women and their reproductive parts…uterus, etc. If I wanted the government in my ______, I would ______ a Senator….you fill in the blanks. That is a losing strategy.

            Women vote, young and old, and we want all men (however it seems to be old white Republican men) to mind their own business.

            If they want a procedure prior to an abortion that penetrates our V, then I want a procedure that manipulates your P before you get a prescription for Viagra. Prove it doesn’t work first.

          • jschmidt2

            funny- keep your sense of humor. With any government, you’ll need it.

          • JMC

            Linda – Should the Gov’t. be involved in the “business of women and their reproductive parts.. uterus, etc”? I think the Gov’t. is already involved, big-time.

        • Linda174

          The union rank and file do not want Malloy and many teachers will never ever vote for him again.

    • msavage

      I disagree. If Malloy doesn’t make BIG changes over the next couple of years, I don’t see him garnering any support from anyone other than CEOs, union leadership (maybe), political appointees, and overpaid university presidents, board of regents members, etc. I agree with Guest below–a centrist from either party can wrest the office from Malloy. Better yet, a third party candidate. Isn’t it time to break the stranglehold of the two-party system in this country?

    • Bill Morrison

      He might have the support of union leadership; as an active and vocal union member, I feel betrayed by Malloy and will never vote for him again. He is GOP (Greed, Oppression, and Persecution) in Democrat clothing, and his policies of hate are earning him far more hatred in return. I know of no union member in any union who backs him now.

  • Steven Jones

    Seems you missed a poll Jon: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/an-early-look-at-the-2014-governor-landscape.html

    Folks who look favored for another term, at least for now:

    “Democrat Dan Malloy of Connecticut also belongs in this category. We’ve
    tended to find him as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country
    so far but he saw a major improvement in our last poll to the point
    where he led a hypothetical Republican foe 48-37.”

    Just something to consider, but I think comparing Obama to Malloy is also a bit of a stretch. How about comparing state-wide leaders (Senators, for instance) to Malloy ? You may find they have somewhat similar numbers in popularity and approval. What is going to matter in the end is two things: Elimination of the deficit and job growth. And those each have another year and a half to improve as we keep getting hit with economically damaging storms and sluggish national growth.

    • jonpelto

      I did miss this one – will take a cook and respond. The PPP is one of those automatic polls where you have to wait for the recorded message and hit different numbers to register your response. That said, they’ve had some impressive accuracy around the country. As I said, I’ll take a look.

      • Steven Jones

        One thing not noted in the quote is the 15 percent who are undecided. Malloy has consistently had a 10-15% chunk of voters/citizens who are undecided/unsure about him in opinion polls, as well as hypothetical ‘election day’ polls. And that leaves a wide swing for both Malloy and his eventual incumbent.

    • jschmidt2

      There is talk of recession with or without the fiscal cliff. Of course that could be Malloys excuse.

  • jschmidt2

    With Malloy;s track record, Obama will probably appoint him to something to do with the budget.

  • Guest 2

    The insiders have already been planning for Malloy’s departure to DC. Wyman is stepping in and Williams will be LG, which means the Dems are poised to loose the gov’s office in 2 years. Two eastern CT no-names with an unbalanced budget cannot beat a credible R challanger.

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